CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Bennett, K.E.; Schnorbus, M.; Werner, A.T.; and Berland, A.J.
Date : 2010.
Title : Climate change impacts to hydro power reservoir systems in British Columbia, Canada: Modelling, validation and projection of historic and future streamflow and snowpack.
Publication : American Geophysical Union 2010 Fall Meeting, December 13-17, 2010. Moscone Convention Centre, San Francisco, California, U.S.A.
Issue :
Page(s) : C13C-07.
Abstract
The British Columbia Hydro Electric Corporation (BC Hydro) has a mandate to provide clean, renewable and reliable sources of hydro-electric power into the future, hence managing those resources in the context of climate change will be an important component of reservoir operational planning in British Columbia. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (www.PacificClimate.org) has implemented the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model parameterized at 1/16th degree (~32 km2) to provide BC Hydro with future projections of changes to streamflow and snowpack to the 2050s. The headwaters of the Peace, Columbia, and Campbell River basins were selected for study; the Upper Peace River basin (101,000 km2) is a snowmelt-dominated watershed, and the Upper Columbia River Basin (104,000 km2) has a mixed snowmelt-glacier melt runoff regime, with glacier runoff contributing up to 15 to 20% of late summer discharge. The Upper Campbell River watershed (1,200 km2) has a mixed rainfall and snowmelt (hybrid) hydrologic regime. The model has been calibrated using historical streamflow observations and validated against these observations, as well as automated snow pillow measurements. Future streamflow changes are estimated based on eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the CMIP3 suite, downscaled using the Bias Correction Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique, run under three emissions scenarios (A2, A1B and B1; A1B is specifically reported on herein). Climate impacts by the 2050s in the three watersheds illustrate an increase in annual average temperature and precipitation ranging between +2.2°C to +2.8°C and +2% to +10% depending on basin, and an annual change in streamflow of -1% to +12% for the three watersheds. Changes are more profound on the seasonal time-scale and differ across basins. Summer streamflow in the Upper Campbell River watershed is projected to decline by -60%, where as the Upper Peace and Columbia systems are projected to decline by -25% and -22%, respectively. Streamflow is projected to increase during winter months for all basins, ranging from increases of +54% (Upper Campbell), +77% (Upper Peace) to +94% (Upper Columbia). These changes in streamflow illustrate a shift towards more rainfall dominated systems with lower snowpacks during the winter months, particularly in the Campbell system (shifting from 23% to 13% snow dominated by the 2050s), which is located at a relatively low elevation and proximal to the Pacific Ocean. Shifts in the distribution of water resources, and in particular snowpack reserves, may require BC Hydro to reconsider their operational planning framework for impacted systems.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology