CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Booth, E.; Byrne, J.M.; Jiskoot, H.; and MacDonald, R.J.
Date : 2011.
Title : Modeling the response of glaciers to climate change in the upper North Saskatchewan River basin.
Publication : American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2011. December 5-9, 2011. San Francisco, California. USA.
Issue : C53D-0694.
Page(s) :
Abstract
Alpine glaciers act as barometers of climatic change, responding directly to longterm changes in temperature and precipitation with changes in mass balance, resulting in volume and length modifications. The heavily glaciated Upper North Saskatchewan River Basin (UNSRB), Alberta, Canada, represents a crucial portion of the headwaters for the Saskatchewan-Nelson watershed that spans the northern interior of the continent and drains into Hudson’s Bay over 1500 km away. Historically, glacier melt runoff provides a significant percentage of late-summer streamflow in the UNSRB. Evidence suggests that recent warming has caused a change in glacier mass balance in the UNSRB that is unprecedented during the Holocene. Analysis of projected climate indices shows that the longterm negative mass balance of glaciers in the region will likely continue to decline over the next century. The effect of recent historical climate change on the glaciers in UNSRB is simulated using a modified version of the physically based Generate Earth SYstems Science (GENESYS) hydromet model. GENESYS has previously been employed to watersheds on the eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains to simulate daily hydro-met processes at a high resolution over complex terrain, focusing on modeling snow water equivalent and the timing of the spring melt. A mass balance glacier routine is incorporated into GENESYS to more accurately gauge the effects of climate change on the glaciers located in the UNSRB. GENESYS daily micrometeorological data is used to drive a series of glacial ice and snow algorithms that include accumulation, ablation and ice redistribution over the glacier. GCM future ensembles were downscaled and applied to the model to predict changes in the mass balance of glaciers in the UNSRB under a range of likely climate scenarios. Results include time series of changes in glacier mass balance, length, and hydrologic response to changing ice volumes up to the year 2100.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology