CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Cabrera, A.R.; Guthrie, R.H.; Deadman P.J.; and Evans, S.G.
Date : 2007.
Title : Exploring the magnitude frequency distribution: a cellular automata model for landslides.
Publication : Annual Meeting of the Canadian Association of Geographers. May 29 - June 2, 2007. Saskatoon, Saskatchewan.
Issue : Programme 2007.
Page(s) : 77.
Abstract
The prediction of landslides presents a challenge in risk assessment. While the headscarps of potential landslides can be approximated through site observation or remote sensing, thepath and magnitude of potential future landslides are difficult to predict. A number of recent attempts have been made to emulate individual past landslides using cellular automata.This study however, focused on the development of a generalized agent-based model for the prediction of landslides in coastal British Columbia. This cellular model uses elevation data and appropriate rule parameters to generate a population of potential landslides within a particular study area. Landslides are modelled as a collection of agents, with each agent representing a mass of moving debris in a given cell. At each simulation step, agents scour, deposit and move to neighbouring cells. Simulated landslides in two study areas on Vancouver Island, British Columbia, have been compared to historical data. While the magnitude of a particular future landslide is impossible to predict, the magnitudes of a sample of landslides in the area can be characterized by a frequency-magnitude distribution. Like historical landslides, simulated landslides under this model have been found to exhibit an inverse power law relationship between frequency and magnitude.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology