CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Cavadias, G.S.
Date : 2001.
Title : A Bayesian exploratory approach to the attribution of changes in river flows
Publication : Proceedings of the Fifty-Eighth Annual Eastern Snow Conference May 17 –19,2001 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Issue :
Page(s) : 58-59.
Abstract
The drainage basin of the Moisie River has an area of 19000 sq.km. An examination of the monthly hydrograph of this river shows a reduction of the flow in the mid-eighties. The size and timing of this reduction can be determined by one of the appropriate classical or Bayesian detection tests. However, for the attribution of these changes, it is necessary to examine the corresponding changes in all input, storage and output variables. From a supplementary analysis of the results of the conceptual model using a dynamic linear model we are further able to conclude that in the years 1986 to 1987 a reduction in snowfall and an early snowmelt resulted in a step reduction of the volume of the spring flood. The question remains, however, whether the observed changes are due to climate variability or to climate change.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology