CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Cheng, C.S.; Li, G.; and Li, Q.
Date : 2007.
Title : -Possible impacts of climate change on rainfall-related streamflow in Ontario using downscaled future climate scenarios.
Publication : CMOS, CGU, AMS Congress 2007. "Air, Ocean, Earth and Ice on the Rock". May 28 - June 1, 2007. St. John's Congress Centre, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.
Issue :
Page(s) : H01-1C4.2.
Abstract
The flood damage costs in Ontario, Canada have risen significantly from the early to the late of the last century. Climate change might increase rainfall-related flood damage costs in the future. To evaluate this possible climate change impact, this study has attempted to estimate changes in occurrence frequency of future high-level streamflow events under downscaled GCM climate scenarios for four selected river basins (i.e., Grand, Humber, Rideau, and Thames rivers) in Ontario. Meteorological data used in the analysis included hourly/daily observations from meteorological stations at the international airports nearby the river basins and climate stations located in the river basins for the warm months (April–November) of 1958–2002. Six-hourly NCEP-NCAR upper-air reanalysis weather data at eight atmospheric levels for the same period were also used in the study. Automated synoptic weather typing integrated with cumulative logit and non-linear regression analyses was applied to estimate future daily rainfall amounts. An autocorrelation correction model was applied to estimate future daily streamflow volumes, using downscaled GCM scenarios. Statistical downscaling methods were used to downscale GCM scenarios for three Canadian GCMs (CGCM1 IPCC IS92a, CGCM2 IPCC SRES A2/B2), one U.S. GCM (GFDL-CM2.0 IPCC SRES A2), and one German GCM (ECHAM5/MPI-OM IPCC SRES A2), for three-time windows (2016–35, 2046–65, 2081–2100). The historical runs (1961–2000) of the five GCMs were also downscaled and used to correct the GCM and downscaling model biases. Preliminary results show that under climate change scenarios, frequency of the future heavy rainfall and high flow events could increase in the future. The low flow events could also increase in the future due to the dry condition.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology