CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Cherniawsky, J.; Wang, K.; Titov, V.; Stephenson, F.; and Rabinovich, R.
Date : 2004.
Title : Predicted tsunami heights and currents in Vancouver Island harbours caused by a future Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake.
Publication : Eos Transactions. Joint Assembly of the CGU, AGU, SEG and EEGS, Montreal, Canada, May 17-21, 2004.
Issue : 85(17):
Page(s) : OS13A-01.
Abstract
The 1700 great Cascadia earthquake (M=9) generated widespread tsunami waves that affected the entire Pacific Ocean and caused damage as far as Japan. Similar waves may be generated by a future Cascadia earthquake. We use several plausible rupture scenarios in numerical ocean model experiments to predict tsunami heights and currents in Vancouver Island harbours caused by such an earthquake. These scenarios include the rupture of the entire 1100-km length of the Subduction Zone and separate rupture of smaller northern and southern segments. We present the tsunami model results for several harbours including Victoria and Esquimalt harbours for these three scenarios. As expected, the more remote (southern) earthquake has a limited effect in the harbours. However, the other two scenarios produce very significant waves (up to 4.5 m) and strong currents (exceeding 10 knots) in Victoria and Esquimalt harbours that are located inside the Juan de Fuca Strait. The same models indicate that tsunami waves can exceed 10 m and currents can be at least twice as strong in various bays and harbours on the outer coast.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology