CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Choi, W.; Kim, S.J.; Koenig, K.; Lee, M.; Moore, A.; and Rasmussen, P.
Date : 2009.
Title : Climate change and surface water resources in northern Manitoba: An approach combining hydrological modeling and statistical downscaling.
Publication : 2009 Annual Meeting of the American Association of Geographers. March 22-27, 2009. Rivera Hotel, Las Vegas, Nevada.
Issue :
Page(s) :
Abstract
Climate change will have significant impact on different sectors in Canada, including the hydropower industry which is highly vulnerable to trends in water availability. In order to study basin-scale hydrological impacts of climate change, it is necessary to process global climate model output to correct for biases and other deficiencies. Statistical downscaling offers a relatively simple set of tools to make such corrections. The study has investigated and applied four statistical downscaling models: the delta method, SDSM, LARS-WG, and nearest-neighbor resampling. The SLURP hydrological model was set up for three northern Manitoba basins (Taylor, Burntwood, and Sapochi) nested in the Nelson River basin where a number of generating stations are located. Climate scenarios for the period 2081-2100 were created by statistically downscaling the third generation Canadian General Circulation Model (CGCM3/T47) output under A1B, A2, and B1 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. SLURP simulations were made with different combinations of emission scenarios and downscaling methods, and most combinations seem to agree that runoff will increase in the three basins. However, the performance of nearest neighbor resampling was noticeably different from others.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology