CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Church, M.
Date : 2000.
Title : What is a geomorphological prediction?
Publication : American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 15-19, 2000. San Francisco, California.
Issue :
Page(s) :
Abstract
Geomorphology is one of the more difficult subjects in science. The reasons are the complexity posed by the resolved boundary conditions (Earth's surface) and the contingent nature of initial and forcing conditions (Earth history). Such obstacles are normally overcome by reduction. In geomorphology, reduction can usefully be had by constraining space and time scales. Local processes may be predicted for short periods using conventional mechanics. But the prediction of a change in the landscape -- the ultimate objective of geomorphology as a predictive science -- remains remarkably difficult. There appear to be three approaches to prediction. For a deterministic model, the problem is the effect of many unknown contingencies in the landscape. One solution is to sample many similar landscapes and to test the model outcome by comparison with the distributions of landscape properties. Another is to perturb the initialisation of the model, and to compare the ensemble of model outcomes with the properties of a particular prototype landscape. A stochastic model represents an attempt to subsume the effects of contingent events. Again, an ensemble of model outcomes is compared with the properties of the prototype landscape. In no case is an unequivocal prediction of a particular landscape available.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology