CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Clair, T.A.; and Ehrman, J.M.
Date : 2006.
Title : Estimating changes in runoff and carbon exports from Northern Canadian catchments under a 2X CO2 atmosphere.
Publication : Eos Transactions. AGU,
Issue : 87(52), Fall Meeting Supplement,
Page(s) : Abstract B23E-07.
Abstract
The doubling of atmospheric CO2 on temperature and precipitation will change annual runoff and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export patterns in northern Canada. Because of the physical size and the range of climatic changes of northern Canada, we found it necessary to model potential changes in river water and carbon exports in the region using a neural network approach. We developed a model for hydrology and one for DOC using as inputs, monthly General Circulation Model temperature and precipitation predictions, historical hydrology and dissolved organic carbon values, as well as catchment size and slope. Mining Environment Canada's historical hydrology and water chemistry databases allowed us to identify 20 sites suitable for our analysis. The site results were summarized within the Canadian Terrestrial Ecozone classification system. Our results show spring melts occurring one month sooner in all northern ecozones except for the Hudson Bay Plains zone, with changes in melt intensity occurring in most regions. The DOC model predicts that exports from catchments will increase by between 10 and 20% depending on the ecozone. Generally, we predict that major changes in both hydrology and carbon cycling should be expected in northern Canadian ecosystems in a warmer planet.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology