CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Cote, M.M.; Duchesne, C.; and Wright, J.F.
Date : 2004.
Title : Impacts of climate change on discontinuous permafrost in the Fort Simpson area using TONE finite element modeling.
Publication : Association Québécoise pour l'Étude du Quaternaire (AQQUA) et Canadian Geomorphology Research Group (CGRG). 14-15-16 mai 2004, Université Laval, Québéc.
Issue :
Page(s) : 49.
Abstract
A one-dimensional finite element heat conduction model (T-ONE) has been integrated within a Geographic Information System (GIS) to enable prediction of changes to active layer thickness, permafrost thickness and temperature at the top of permafrost in the Fort Simpson area, NWT, under various climate scenarios, and at incremental time steps. This transient modeling capability builds on previous regional ground-thermal modeling employing the TTOP model, the predictions of which are limited to situations where thermal equilibrium has been achieved between the atmospheric and ground thermal regimes. While TTOP provides valuable insight into the magnitude and spatial distribution of the impacts of climate change, it cannot explicitly track changes in ground thermal conditions over time. Integration of T-ONE within a GIS platform effectively enables a quasi 3-dimension transient ground thermal model with the capacity to predict the ground temperature response to changing atmospheric temperatures and/or surface conditions, achieved within a specified time frame. Permafrost in the Fort Simpson region is discontinuous in nature, with temperatures that are close to 0°C. It is anticipated that this type of "warm" permafrost will be most affected by climate warming over the next decades. Therefore, the Fort Simpson region serves as an ideal study area for investigating the transient aspects of climate change in a sensitive permafrost landscape. The modeling is supported by data from a regional network of air, surface, and ground temperature monitoring sites. Generation of a digital representation of the landscape was based on existing maps of surficial geology and vegetation cover, Landsat TM satellite imagery, and a high resolution digital elevation model. During the presentation, modeling results will be presented and their implications will be discussed.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology