CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Creese, E.E.; and McBean, E.A.
Date : 1995
Title : The effect of climate change on monthly river flows in the Grand River basin.
Publication : Proceedings of the 38th Conference of the International Association of Great Lakes Research.; International Association for Great Lakes Research; 2200 Bonisteel Boulevard, Ann
Issue :
Page(s) : 104
Abstract
The historical relationship of monthly river flows to daily average temperature and daily precipitation was investigated for the Nith River subbasin of the Grand River basin in southern Ontario. The Nith River is unregulated. A hydrological computer model was constructed for this purpose. In calibrating the model parameters, separate Box-Cox transformations of the actual river flows and of the river flow output of the hydrological model were necessary to avoid heteroscedasticity of variance in the residuals. A Box-Jenkins noise term was needed to reduce serial autocorrelation of residuals to acceptable levels. Optimization of the parameters in the hydrological model and in what was essentially a superimposed statistical model was carried out simultaneously. Twenty years of historical data were used for calibration. Changes in temperature and precipitation derived from three Global Circulation Models for the 2xCO sub(2) scenario were applied to the calibrated model in order to estimate river flow changes due to CO sub(2) induced climate change. Significant, at p<0.05, changes in monthly expected values of river flows were: February, +41%; March, -24%; April, -39%; September, -28%; October, 31%; November, -47%; and December, -45%. August showed a 17% decrease in flow, but at p=0.056. Expected values represent de-transformations of mean transformed values.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology