ABSTRACT: Response of barrier beach and dune systems in the Gulf of St. Lawrence to climate variability, climate change and sea level rise: An assessment of vulnerability and constraints.

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Abstract

The coast of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence is characterised by shallow estuaries, low bedrock cliffs and extensive sandy coastal barrier spits and barrier islands. The area is microtidal and the wave regime is dominated by storm waves generated over fetches 100-300 km. Shorefast ice is common for 3-4 months of the year with extensive sea ice coverage for two months or more. Climate change is expected to result in a rapid decrease in the extent and duration of sea ice cover and in the extent of shorefast ice, thus exposing the shoreline to wave action at a time when storms are generally strongest. At the same time storm intensity is expected to increase, and the combination of these two factors will likely lead to increased potential for erosion of mainland dune systems and overwash of coastal barriers. Sea level is currently rising at about 30 cm per century in Prince Edward Island and this may double over the next century in response to global warming. These factors in combination might be expected to produce rapid and drastic changes to the extensive mainland and barrier beach/dune systems. This paper draws on recent and ongoing studies of beach/dune response to storms in Prince Edward Island to assess the potential impacts of global warming and enhanced sea level rise on these systems. The conclusions suggest that the climate change over the next century may not produce appreciable changes to the continuing coastal evolution and likely will not require any significant management adaptations.

Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology