ABSTRACT: Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Climate Change on the Coastal Zone of Southeastern New Brunswick: Executive Summary.

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Abstract

The objective of this three-year (2003–2006) multidisciplinary research project was to quantify the impacts of climate change — specifically, sea-level rise, storm surge and coastal erosion — on the Gulf of St. Lawrence coastal zone of southeastern New Brunswick. The results of the study will support sustainable management, community resilience and the development of adaptation strategies. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data have been used to generate a detailed digital elevation model (DEM) of the coast, critical for delineating flooding and inundation zones, natural protection structures such as coastal dunes, and backshore elevation for estimating sediment supply from shore erosion. Meteorological, geological and hydrographic studies include investigations into measured and forecast sea-level changes due to crustal subsidence and climate change. This project modelled the benchmark storm-surge events of January 21, 2000 (declared a disaster by the federal government), and October 29, 2000, and developed a “maximum potential” storm surge along this coast, given our understanding of historical events. These ranges of stormsurge events along with the proposed climate-change-induced sea-level-rise scenarios have been placed on the DEM to identify areas along the New Brunswick Gulf of St. Lawrence coast that will be vulnerable to flooding, coastal erosion and inundation over the next 100 years. These impacts are being defined in terms of likely risk, with scales of inland penetration of storm surges based on the scenarios presented and their effect on infrastructure, industry and coastal ecosystems. The coastal zone of southeastern New Brunswick is home to several threatened species of plants and animals. An important aspect of the ecosystem research is to determinehow sea-level rise and future storm events will impact critical habitat and species at risk.

Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology