ABSTRACT: Hazard analysis of an active slide in the Thompson River Valley, Ashcroft, British Columbia, Canada.

CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Abstract

Current practice in landslide hazard analysis does not commonly address the potential for different rates of movement after failure. The movement rates of an active landslide may vary significantly; therefore, the consequences analysis for such a landslide requires the calculation of the probability of different post-failure movement rates. Slide CN50.9 near Ashcroft, B.C., is used to demonstrate the hazard analysis of active landslides that incorporates the probability of post-failure movement rate. After defining the characteristics of the slide and the movement trigger, a probabilistic slope stability analysis for a 100 year period is conducted that considers the material and trigger uncertainties in the analysis. Then the uncertainties in the groundwater condition and amount of toe erosion are added to the probabilistic slope stability results. A new method is introduced for incorporating the probability of the different movement rates of each translational block within the slide body in the hazard analysis. A relatively high probability (0.1) of rapid reactivation for the toe reactivation block is estimated. The probability of very rapid retrogression of the current main scarp within the next 100 year period is calculated to be relatively low (0.003). A detailed risk analysis based on this hazard analysis will be helpful for decision makers.

Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology