CGRG Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology
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Author : Fan, Y.; and Fay, D.
Date : 2004.
Title : Upper Great Lakes water levels for four climate change scenarios.
Publication : 11th Annual International Conference on the St. Lawrence River Ecosystem. "Managing our Waters: Great Lakes / St. Lawrence River Ecosystem". NAVCANADA Conference Centre, Cornwall, Ontario. May 18-19th, 2004.
Issue :
Page(s) : 10.
Abstract
This report presents the simulated water levels and flows that would occur given the five hydrologic scenarios presented in the report “Great Lakes Climate Change Hydrologic Impact Assessment” (Croley, 2003). As described in Dr. Croley’s report, fifty year long series of net basin supplies for the base case and each of four climate change scenarios were formed by scaling the observed meteorological data for the period from 1950 to 1999 using the results of four recent General Circulation Model scenarios. These four different climate change scenarios were selected to determine the possible range of Great Lakes water levels and flows that would be expected to result from the effects of climate change. In particular, the work was conducted to present a possible range of climate change impacts on the total water supplies received by Lake Ontario, in order to determine their impacts on the regulation of outflows from that lake. The hydrological models that Dr. Croley has applied generate series of net basin supplies for each of lakes Superior, Michigan-Huron, St. Clair, Erie and Ontario. To generate the levels and outflows from each of these lakes, these five sets of NBS series have been input into the Coordinated Great Lakes Regulation and Routing Model which simulates the movement of water through the lakes and computes the levels and outflows of each of the upper lakes according to Plan 1977A rules for Lake Superior regulation and equations that represent the present channel hydraulics. The results of this model show that, as compared to the base case, the levels of Lake Superior would fall on average by 11 cm to 34 cm, those of Lakes Michigan-Huron by 24 cm to 105 cm and those of Lake Erie by 13 cm to 76 cm. The net total supply to Lake Ontario would be reduced from the base case by 3% to 23% in the four climate change cases.
Bibliography of Canadian Geomorphology